The US has shown weakness toward China and with the distraction of Covid, it’s is now or never for Russia. They want Ukraine to create a smaller defensible border against NATO and Ukraine has the potential to take their natural gas market, which they want to avoid at all costs. Further, Ukraine is the birth place of Russia, and some provinces want to join Russia as they are Russian and speak Russian. The outcome IMO will be Russia annexing Crimea and other provinces on the border, and Ukraine losing out on the natural gas reserves in The Black Sea. But if the world rallies against Russia, they might have to withdraw altogether. Hopefully this doesn’t lead to WWIII. I am too old for that.