Signs Before the End of the Age

This topic contains 163 replies, has 11 voices, and was last updated by  t8 1 month, 2 weeks ago.

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  • #805542
     david 
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    Why does terror work?  It works because of news agencies and people talking about it and spreading the fear around.  Fear sells.  The number of people killed by terrorism is on the noise.  It’s minuscule compared to almost every other way to die.   The tiniest tiniest tiniest fraction of what homicides are for example.

    Pother than feelings that people have from watching the news business sell these rare and unusual events, are there any statistical reasons to believe tha terrorism is rising?

    Did you know that it’s been spear images that more people died in the following year of 9/11 because they took are instead of planes–a much more dangerous way to travel.  And so statistically speaking more people died the following year by avoiding airplanes and using the much more dangerous cars.   More people died this because of thinking about and reacting to the terrorism than died in those airplanes on that day.

    #805543
     david 
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    “Also, logically speaking, no increase in anything is uniform. What you find is the overall graph goes up or down with smaller ups and downs in between. Jesus taught that terrible things would increase. He didn’t say that every day or every year would be worse than the previous. He talked about the overall trend.

    For example nation will rise against nation, then kingdom against kingdom. That doesn’t mean that there couldn’t be peacetime in between right?”

     

    sure.  The lines aren’t linear.  They all have bumps.  The overall trend in the things I’m talking about are decreasing.  They are decreasing in rate or percentage.  And Some of them are even decreasing in absolute terms.

    Part of this that annoys me is when someones says there are more [x] (with a population of 7 billion) than there were of [x] (when the population was 1 billion).   We’ve had a recent population explosion due to better medical care, vaccines, antibiotics, and the almost elimination of pestilence.  It wasn’t that long that we were at 1 billion   With 7 billion you are going to have more deaths in absolute terms   More deaths in general because more people.   More births means more deaths.

    Bit it what we should ask ourself is how likely am I  to be a victim of homicide today?  And how likely was I 100 years ago?  Or 1000?

    There are likely more people hiccuping right now than there were 200 years ago.  Many many more.  But it isn’t because hiccuping has become a problem.  The world isn’t more hiccupy.  It’s just that there are more people   We have to measure these things as a rate.  Not in absolute terms.

     

    #805550
     kerwin 
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    David,

    Another factor is that human beings live longer on average today that we did in the Middle Ages leaving even a lower proportion of individuals in that young adult state where violence is more likely.

    #805558
     t8 
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    Why does terror work?  It works because of news agencies and people talking about it and spreading the fear around.  Fear sells.  The number of people killed by terrorism is on the noise.  It’s minuscule compared to almost every other way to die.   The tiniest tiniest tiniest fraction of what homicides are for example.

    The fact that the Middle East was once filled with Christians, and then with the spread of Islam and the genocide of Christians, that would amount to a lot of deaths, suffering, pain, and tears. Perhaps you underestimate how bad these tribulations are, especially the one happening now.

    It is easy for keyboard warriors to state this and that opinion and comment about how trivial things are now, but I think if we walked in the shoes of those that profess faith in God and Jesus Christ his son within their native region of the world, then we would soon see how dangerous it is.  Like sheep among a pack of wolves. In Jesus, Peter and Paul’s day they roamed about the countryside preaching and doing the things of God while suffering persecution. But try doing that in many parts of the Middle East now and you would be lucky to last one day IMO.

    As for your point about every other way to die, my guess is that most people in history die from natural causes. But more people are dying from terrorism now than before. As for wars, they fluctuate, but on the whole things are getting worse there too. There is more technology that can kill more people in less time. There seems to be a constant stream of wars now, not just one every so often.

    According to scripture, we are headed for wars, earthquakes, and tribulations the likes that have never happened in human history. Sure these things have happened before, but they will become more intense as we near the end. It will get worse before it gets better.

    I think it is easy for both you and me to think the world isn’t that bad. And that is because it isn’t that bad where we live. But I am betting Canada like New Zealand is one of the places that many in the world would love to live. Many want to escape their part of the world and come and live in our lands. Why because we live in places that are not normal. People think of them as paradise. Most people in our countries have jobs, a car or few, work 40 hours a week for a decent wage, and have time to enjoy with their families, and go on vacation once a year.

    However, I use to live in Colombia, and the city I lived in had 10 million people. That was like three times the amount of people than my whole country. I realised then how small New Zealand was and how my way of life there is for a small minority.

    I also went to India once. Four million New Zealanders compared to one billion Indians cannot be compared. From what I saw in India, there was a lot of suffering and death. It was everywhere. Even bodies piled up in the street to be burned in public.

    Then there is China. While it is prospering for many, you are not really free to express your faith as we are. You need to conform or risk being considered an enemy. If that happens, I can bet that life will not be very sweet for you. try hard labour in a camp in China or North Korea for that matter.

    Then there is Africa. While I have never been there, I had a friend go there and say that every horrible thing you can imagine exists there. And I know that murder is rife and famine and starvation is no stranger to that continent.

    Even the good old US of A has locked up one in one-hundred people in prison. One in thirty men. One in nine black men. I am betting that life in prison in the US is not very comfortable either.

    The reality is that the world is not a nice place and it is full of suffering, poverty, disease, and pain.

    Perhaps you need a good dose of trials and tribulation David. Sounds to me like your view of the world is biased toward your own experience. I am sure billions of people in the world would like to debate you about your views, but many of them are not privileged enough to sit in a lounge in front a screen and type away on the Internet.

    #805602
     david 
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    “Another factor is that human beings live longer on average today that we did in the Middle Ages leaving even a lower proportion of individuals in that young adult state where violence is more likely.”

    sure, violence is more likely among younger people.  And sure, in the Middle Ages people lives on AVERAGE much younger.   But what that average 30 something stat means is that almost half of them died as infants from infectious disease and disagree dehydration and pneumonia and the rest lived to about 70.  Which averages out to 30 something.  the 30 something average creates the picture that people died at 30 something.  But as I understand it, if you made it past a couple years old, you were likely to live into your 60’s or 70’s.

    #805603
     david 
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    T8, if I stated that terrorism is trivial, it is only trivial in the way that 50 is trivial compared to 20,000.

    #805604
     david 
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    When I said its trivial compared to every other way to die I meant every other way to die from violence (homicide/war/etc).

    I wasn’t comparing terrorism deaths to deaths of natural causes.

    #805605
     david 
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    if you think it’s easy for me to not think the world is that bad, you are wrong.  I’ve been indoctrinated, programmed and conditioned to think that everything is bad and getting worse my whole life.   The average person in North America thinks this is the case simply because of the way the news works and human psychology.  But as for me, I was exposed to this 100 fold.  In fact, when I mention to those around me that anything is getting better, (infant mortality, poverty) I am then interrogated and essentially threatened into silence, upon loss of my entire social network.  So, it’s not mentally easy for me to believe reality.  I am simply considering what the numbers actually say instead of letting myself be deceived any longer.    

    #805606
     david 
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    T8

    you mention life in prison likely not being very comfortable in the US.

    You our do realize that for most of history in most places previous were essentially death camps.  People rotted away and starved in prisons.  You sometimes had to pay to be released from irons.  To pay for food.  You needed others to do this from the outside.   With the death and disease and lack of sanitation they were essentially death camps.

    US PRISONS might be bad.  Sure.  My point is they are insanely better than the past.  People don’t starve to death in US prisons.

    Many prisons in the past were also essentially work camps where the prisoner was put on a wheel and this was for basically the whole day.

    #805607
     david 
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    Yes. The world is full of suffering poverty disease and pain.

    But much less full than the past.

    Imagine every time you have been to the doctor or dentist in your lifetime.  Now imagine doing those things 300 years ago.  Or 3000 years ago.   How would that go?  No anesthetic remember.   Urine and feces were used by dentists and doctors for a long time in some civilizations.

    For almost all of history 99% of humanity lives in extreme poverty. In the 1800’s it dropped to 80%.

    30 years ago it was 40%. Now it’s 15%. And in  15 years they project basically zero percent.

     

    So  yes poverty (along with malnourishment) is horrible.  And it still exists.  Just to a much smaller degree.  This is what the numbers suggest.

    I listened to some interesting stats today.  Today it takes 1 second of work to pay for 1 hour of light.  Decades ago it took 8 seconds of work to pay for 1 hour of light.  But the further back you go the worse it for and if you go back to 1800, the average person couldn’t afford a candle.

    Astor disease, let’s focus on pestilence (deadly infectious disease).

    We have essentially wiped it out.  Sure AIDS killed 0.5% of the world over 3 decades.  And the Spanish flu killed a few percent.  But this is nothing compared to history.   Black Death killed 20-25% of the world.  Justinian plague which you have never heard of killed about 50% of the world.

    Without modern medicine there would be one or 2 billion more dead people today.

    Moot feels like the argument is always turned into a straw man.  I don’t argue that these things don’t exist.  I argue that today they are a much smaller problem for the average human citizen.  Globally.

    #805608
     david 
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    Your last sentence.  Yes.  Only about 40% of the world has internet access.  True.  And this is a huge jump from just a few years ago.   5 years ago it was about 33% I think.  But guess how many had internet access 100 years ago. Or 1000. Or 3000?

    zero.

    So so yes I feel bad for the people that don’t have Internet access.  But I also point out it used to be worse.

    Literacy and education used to be worse. Communication used to be worse.

    #805609
     david 
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    Im really not just using anecdotal experience or personal opinion or feeling to come to these conclusions.  That is what people tend to do and why they get it wrong.

    I’ve  separated out the cognitive illusions involved in this–that deceive most.

    Mane I know Africa and China and India still have problems.  The whole world still has problems in fact.  Just less violence and better health and mortality on the whole.

    #805747
     t8 
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    David, it doesn’t matter how you perceive that the world is getting better. It is not for most people. It is for you and me that is true. Our privileged lives in this world are the minority.

    In the past there have been empires to rule the masses as there are today. But most people were peasants working the land. Yes people still died violently as they do today, but a small minority compared to most who just lived on the land. These days, empires have technology that can make all come into line. The modern world is way more connected than the past. That point alone secured a better life for many from evil regimes in the past. How often did they come into direct contact. These days there is no place to hide. That last point was part of the message/vision I received (in the opening post). That terror would increase and there would be no hiding place.

    #805748
     t8 
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     Just less violence and better health and mortality on the whole.

    I read headlines like these every day.

    • Christianity ‘close to extinction’ in Middle East
    • Will today’s children die earlier than their parents?
    • Increasing Violence: A Concern for Schools
    • Huge increase in domestic violence cases
    • Robberies increasing in Baltimore
    • Fivefold increase in terrorism fatalities since 9/11
    • Globally, terrorism is on the rise
    • Sharp increase in violent crime
    • Murder Rates Rising Sharply in Many U.S. Cities
    • Is This the End of Christianity in the Middle East?
    • Middle East Violence Continues to Spread
    • Link between air pollution, increased deaths and increased deaths from heart disease affirmed.

    David, I am not sure what planet you live on, but it sounds like a better one than Earth. Perhaps I could become a refugee and come to your planet?

    And about people living longer. Scripture says that knowledge will increase. That is both beneficial and detrimental to humanity. While there are clearly benefits, it also gives evil more ways to hurt people too.

    Personally if I had the choice to bring up a family in any time period in the Middle East, China, North Korea, India, or Africa (most of the world), it certainly wouldn’t be today. And you do realise that the Bible primarily speaks of the Middle East anyway, and we know that today is one of the worst times to live there as a Christian and for that matter, even as a Muslim.  At one time the place was filled with Christians and now they are almost all extinct. Why do you think that is? And why is Islam the dominant religion. A religion that is of the Antichrist spirit. Perhaps violence is part of that? Beheadings, crucifixions, shootings, cutting of throats. Even if Canada and New Zealand are getting better, the Bible is talking about the Middle East, a place that has become Muslim over the last 1000 years.

    Who can deny that Middle East violence continues to spread. Maybe you can deny it, but you might find yourself alone in your belief.

    #805778
     david 
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    T8

    you keep saying the same thing.  But I’m not just basing this on personal feelings, anecdotes, the news.  And I’m not too interested in local stats.

    It’s true you and I live in great places with good economies and great health compared to the rest of the world.

    Mom not too interested in New Zealand or Canada.  (Canada a bit but only because I live here) I’m interested in the world.  The globe. The planet.

    If you watch almost any Hans Rosling video (an expert on global health)

    ((maybe watch his “200 years that changed the world” video.))

    if you watch any of his videos ….  No found it.  Watch his video “how a billion people moved out of poverty”.  It’s extremely graphic as are all his videos. If you watch that 2 min video you will understand how can the poor people are doing better   Everyone is   This doesn’t mean the poor people go from extreme poverty to rich   It means the people barely surviving are surviving better.  The people walking, now buying bycycles,and the people on bucycles buying motorcycles and the people who could only afford motorcycles now buying small cars   Etc

    You keep talking like the same amount of people living off 1.25 a day hasn’t changed in 100 years much less the last 15.  It has changed and changed immensely

    Yes we have it goose here we live   I’m not talking about good or bad   I’m talking about the global trend   The direction

     

     

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